Europa Conference League (Europe) · Thu, Oct 22 · 16:45 · FK Jablonec vs Brighton & Hove Albion
Likeliest: Brighton & Hove Albion win · 74%
Likely score: 0–1
A 74% away win. The market says 70%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FK Jablonec8%12%−4
OursMarket
Draw18%18%0
OursMarket
Brighton & Hove Albion74%70%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 64% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 53% | 53% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 26% | 30% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 92% | 88% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 82% | 82% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 10% | 15% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FK Jablonec
DrawWinWinLossLoss
- Oct 18 · v Viktoria Plzeň (H)2-3
- Oct 15 · at SC Freiburg (A)2-3
- Oct 10 · at FC Zbrojovka Brno (A)1-0
- Oct 2 · at Dukla Praha (A)1-0
- Sep 20 · v FC Zlín (H)1-1
Brighton & Hove Albion
WinWinWinWinWin
- Oct 18 · v Crystal Palace (H)5-0
- Oct 15 · v FK Kauno Žalgiris (H)4-0
- Oct 10 · at Sunderland (A)2-0
- Sep 19 · v Arsenal (H)3-0
- Sep 16 · at Manchester United (A)3-2
| Last 10 games | FK Jablonec | Brighton & Hove Albion |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 8-1-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 3.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 70% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.