Chance Liga (Czech Republic) · Sun, Sep 20 · 13:00 · FK Jablonec vs FC Zlín
Likeliest: FK Jablonec win · 67%
A tight one: we make it 67% for the home win. The market says 65%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FK Jablonec67%65%+2
OursMarket
Draw21%22%−1
OursMarket
FC Zlín13%13%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 51% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 48% | 47% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 87% | 87% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 33% | 35% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 78% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 84% | 83% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 2.0 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FK Jablonec
LossDrawLossWinLoss
- Sep 12 · at AC Sparta Praha (A)0-2
- Sep 9 · v Baník Ostrava (H)3-0
- Sep 6 · v FC Slovan Liberec (H)1-2
- Sep 2 · at Bohemians Praha 1905 (A)1-1
- Aug 30 · at FK Teplice (A)0-2
FC Zlín
LossLossLossLossWin
- Sep 16 · at MFK Havířov (A)4-0
- Sep 13 · v FC Hradec Králové (H)1-2
- Sep 6 · v FK Teplice (H)1-3
- Aug 29 · at FC Zbrojovka Brno (A)2-3
- Aug 22 · v FC Slovan Liberec (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | FK Jablonec | FC Zlín |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 1-0-8 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 67% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 11% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-0-1 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.