Chance Liga (Czech Republic) · Sun, Oct 18 · 16:00 · FK Jablonec vs Viktoria Plzeň
Likeliest: Viktoria Plzeň win · 40%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 40% for the away win. The market says 40%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FK Jablonec31%34%−3
OursMarket
Draw29%26%+3
OursMarket
Viktoria Plzeň40%40%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 52% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 56% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 60% | 60% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 69% | 66% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 74% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 44% | 46% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FK Jablonec
LossDrawWinWinLoss
- Oct 15 · at SC Freiburg (A)2-3
- Oct 10 · at FC Zbrojovka Brno (A)1-0
- Oct 2 · at Dukla Praha (A)1-0
- Sep 20 · v FC Zlín (H)1-1
- Sep 12 · at AC Sparta Praha (A)0-2
Viktoria Plzeň
LossLossLossWinLoss
- Oct 15 · at Ferencváros TC (A)1-2
- Oct 10 · v Mladá Boleslav (H)3-0
- Sep 20 · at SK Slavia Praha (A)1-2
- Sep 17 · v Royale Union Saint-Gilloise (H)0-3
- Sep 13 · v SK Sigma Olomouc (H)2-3
| Last 10 games | FK Jablonec | Viktoria Plzeň |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-1 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.