Europa Conference League (Europe) · Thu, Oct 22 · 16:45 · FK Kauno Žalgiris vs SK Brann
Likeliest: SK Brann win · 57%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 57% for the away win. The market says 53%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FK Kauno Žalgiris18%22%−4
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
SK Brann57%53%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 53% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 55% | 56% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 43% | 47% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 82% | 78% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 24% | 29% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.0 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FK Kauno Žalgiris
LossLossLossWinLoss
- Oct 15 · at Brighton & Hove Albion (A)0-4
- Aug 27 · v Beşiktaş (H)1-0
- Aug 20 · at Beşiktaş (A)0-3
- Aug 11 · v GNK Dinamo Zagreb (H)1-2
- Aug 4 · at GNK Dinamo Zagreb (A)0-5
SK Brann
WinWinLossWinLoss
- Oct 18 · at Vålerenga IF (A)1-3
- Oct 15 · v Lincoln Red Imps (H)2-1
- Oct 9 · v Viking FK (H)0-2
- Sep 20 · v Bodø/Glimt (H)2-1
- Sep 16 · at Os TF (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | FK Kauno Žalgiris | SK Brann |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-4 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 3-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.