Superliga (Serbia) · Sat, Oct 17 · 17:00 · FK Mačva Šabac vs OFK Beograd
Likeliest: OFK Beograd win · 44%
Likely score: 1–2
We make it 60% for both teams to score. The market says 50%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FK Mačva Šabac25%27%−2
OursMarket
Draw31%27%+4
OursMarket
OFK Beograd44%46%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 47% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 50% | +10 |
| Double chance 1X | 56% | 54% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 75% | 73% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 69% | 73% | −4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 37% | 37% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FK Mačva Šabac
DrawDrawLossLossDraw
- Oct 10 · at FK Čukarički (A)2-2
- Sep 20 · v FK Mladost Lučani (H)1-2
- Sep 11 · at FK Železničar Pančevo (A)0-2
- Sep 5 · v FK Radnički 1923 (H)0-0
- Aug 29 · at FK Novi Pazar (A)1-1
OFK Beograd
LossDrawLossLossDraw
- Oct 12 · at FK Mladost Lučani (A)0-0
- Sep 19 · v FK Radnički 1923 (H)3-5
- Sep 13 · at FK Radnički Niš (A)1-3
- Sep 7 · v FK IMT Beograd (H)1-1
- Aug 31 · at FK Partizan (A)1-3
| Last 10 games | FK Mačva Šabac | OFK Beograd |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-1-2 | 1-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.