3rd Division, Group 4 (Norway) · Sun, Oct 11 · 13:00 · FK Mandalskameratene vs Stabæk Fotball II
Likeliest: FK Mandalskameratene win · 47%
We make it 48% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 28%.
20 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FK Mandalskameratene47%60%−13
OursMarket
Draw27%20%+7
OursMarket
Stabæk Fotball II26%20%+6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 72% | −20 |
| Both teams score | 54% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 80% | −6 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 40% | +13 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 80% | −7 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 64% | 75% | −11 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FK Mandalskameratene
WinWinWinWinWin
- Oct 3 · at Åkra (A)4-0
- Sep 26 · v Odds BK II (H)4-0
- Sep 19 · at Vindbjart (A)1-0
- Sep 12 · v Flekkerøy (H)3-1
- Sep 5 · at Staal Jørpeland (A)2-0
Stabæk Fotball II
LossWinDrawLossWin
- Oct 4 · v Haugesund II (H)4-1
- Sep 27 · v Flekkerøy (H)1-2
- Sep 21 · at Odds BK II (A)1-1
- Sep 13 · v Vindbjart (H)3-1
- Sep 6 · at Viking FK II (A)1-3
| Last 10 games | FK Mandalskameratene | Stabæk Fotball II |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-0-2 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.6 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-0-1 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.