Superliga (Serbia) · Sun, Oct 18 · 12:00 · FK Novi Pazar vs FK IMT Beograd
Likeliest: FK Novi Pazar win · 35%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 35% for the home win. The market says 37%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FK Novi Pazar35%37%−3
OursMarket
Draw31%28%+2
OursMarket
FK IMT Beograd35%34%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 47% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 51% | 50% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 66% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 65% | 63% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 69% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 50% | 52% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.0 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FK Novi Pazar
DrawWinDrawDrawLoss
- Oct 11 · at FK Partizan (A)0-1
- Sep 19 · v FK Zemun (H)2-2
- Sep 12 · at FK Čukarički (A)1-1
- Sep 4 · v FK Železničar Pančevo (H)2-0
- Aug 29 · v FK Mačva Šabac (H)1-1
FK IMT Beograd
WinDrawLossDrawWin
- Oct 10 · v FK Radnik Surdulica (H)1-0
- Sep 19 · at FK Vojvodina (A)1-1
- Sep 13 · v FK Crvena zvezda (H)0-1
- Sep 7 · at OFK Beograd (A)1-1
- Aug 30 · v FK Mladost Lučani (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | FK Novi Pazar | FK IMT Beograd |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-1 | 2-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.