Chance Liga (Czech Republic) · Sat, Oct 17 · 13:00 · FK Pardubice vs FC Zlín
Likeliest: FK Pardubice win · 59%
Likely score: 2–1
We make it 57% for both teams to score. The market says 48%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FK Pardubice59%58%+1
OursMarket
Draw24%24%0
OursMarket
FC Zlín17%18%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 50% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 48% | +9 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 82% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 41% | 42% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 78% | 76% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FK Pardubice
DrawWinWinWinLoss
- Oct 11 · at AC Sparta Praha (A)0-2
- Sep 19 · v Bohemians Praha 1905 (H)2-1
- Sep 16 · at FK Kozlovice (A)6-0
- Sep 13 · at Baník Ostrava (A)2-1
- Sep 5 · at 1. FC Slovácko (A)0-0
FC Zlín
LossLossWinDrawLoss
- Oct 9 · v SK Slavia Praha (H)0-1
- Sep 20 · at FK Jablonec (A)1-1
- Sep 16 · at MFK Havířov (A)4-0
- Sep 13 · v FC Hradec Králové (H)1-2
- Sep 6 · v FK Teplice (H)1-3
| Last 10 games | FK Pardubice | FC Zlín |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 1-1-8 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 1-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.