Superliga (Serbia) · Sat, Oct 24 · 14:00 · FK Partizan vs FK Čukarički
Likeliest: FK Partizan win · 57%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 57% for the home win. The market says 55%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FK Partizan57%55%+2
OursMarket
Draw22%23%−1
OursMarket
FK Čukarički22%23%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 64% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 77% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 43% | 45% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 77% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 72% | 71% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.4 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FK Partizan
LossLossDrawWinLoss
- Oct 18 · at FK Železničar Pančevo (A)0-1
- Oct 11 · v FK Novi Pazar (H)1-0
- Sep 19 · at FK Radnik Surdulica (A)4-4
- Sep 13 · v FK Vojvodina (H)2-3
- Sep 6 · at FK Crvena zvezda (A)1-2
FK Čukarički
LossDrawLossDrawWin
- Oct 17 · v FK Zemun (H)3-0
- Oct 10 · v FK Mačva Šabac (H)2-2
- Sep 20 · at FK Železničar Pančevo (A)1-2
- Sep 12 · v FK Novi Pazar (H)1-1
- Sep 5 · at FK Radnik Surdulica (A)1-3
| Last 10 games | FK Partizan | FK Čukarički |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-6 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-0-3 | 1-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.