Superliga (Serbia) · Sun, Oct 11 · 15:00 · FK Partizan vs FK Novi Pazar
Likeliest: FK Partizan win · 56%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 56% for the home win. The market says 59%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FK Partizan56%59%−3
OursMarket
Draw25%22%+2
OursMarket
FK Novi Pazar19%19%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 62% | −3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 58% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 81% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 44% | 41% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 78% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 74% | 76% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 2.3 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FK Partizan
WinWinLossLossDraw
- Sep 19 · at FK Radnik Surdulica (A)4-4
- Sep 13 · v FK Vojvodina (H)2-3
- Sep 6 · at FK Crvena zvezda (A)1-2
- Aug 31 · v OFK Beograd (H)3-1
- Aug 27 · v Getafe (H)2-1
FK Novi Pazar
LossDrawWinDrawDraw
- Sep 19 · v FK Zemun (H)2-2
- Sep 12 · at FK Čukarički (A)1-1
- Sep 4 · v FK Železničar Pančevo (H)2-0
- Aug 29 · v FK Mačva Šabac (H)1-1
- Aug 23 · at FK Radnik Surdulica (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | FK Partizan | FK Novi Pazar |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-0-3 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.