Europa Conference League (Europe) · Thu, Aug 27 · 19:00 · FK Partizan vs Getafe
Likeliest: FK Partizan win · 41%
A 41% home win. The market says 27%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FK Partizan41%27%+14
OursMarket
Draw27%29%−2
OursMarket
Getafe33%44%−12
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 35% | 45% | −10 |
| Both teams score | 51% | 50% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 56% | +12 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 73% | −14 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 71% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 56% | 37% | +18 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FK Partizan
WinWinLossLossLoss
- Aug 23 · at FK Mladost Lučani (A)1-3
- Aug 20 · at Getafe (A)1-3
- Aug 16 · v FK Radnički 1923 (H)0-1
- Aug 13 · at FC Tobol (A)2-1
- Aug 6 · v FC Tobol (H)3-0
Getafe
LossWinLossWinWin
- Aug 23 · v Racing de Santander (H)1-0
- Aug 20 · v FK Partizan (H)3-1
- Aug 15 · at Deportivo Alavés (A)0-3
- May 23 · v Osasuna (H)1-0
- May 17 · at Elche (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | FK Partizan | Getafe |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.