Superliga (Serbia) · Mon, Aug 31 · 17:00 · FK Partizan vs OFK Beograd
Likeliest: FK Partizan win · 60%
We make it 49% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 39%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FK Partizan60%56%+5
OursMarket
Draw21%23%−2
OursMarket
OFK Beograd19%21%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 61% | −11 |
| Both teams score | 52% | 59% | −7 |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 79% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 40% | 44% | −5 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 77% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 76% | 72% | +4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FK Partizan
WinLossLossLossWin
- Aug 27 · v Getafe (H)2-1
- Aug 23 · at FK Mladost Lučani (A)1-3
- Aug 20 · at Getafe (A)1-3
- Aug 16 · v FK Radnički 1923 (H)0-1
- Aug 13 · at FC Tobol (A)2-1
OFK Beograd
DrawWinDrawLossWin
- Aug 22 · v FK Zemun (H)1-0
- Aug 15 · at FK Čukarički (A)0-2
- Aug 9 · v FK Železničar Pančevo (H)2-2
- Aug 1 · at FK Novi Pazar (A)4-1
- Jul 25 · v FK Radnik Surdulica (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | FK Partizan | OFK Beograd |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-0-4 | 2-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 33% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-0-2 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.