Superliga (Serbia) · Sat, Oct 10 · 17:00 · FK Radnički 1923 vs FK Crvena zvezda
Likeliest: FK Crvena zvezda win · 63%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 63% for the away win. The market says 65%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FK Radnički 192314%14%−1
OursMarket
Draw24%21%+3
OursMarket
FK Crvena zvezda63%65%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 61% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 52% | 54% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 37% | 35% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 86% | 86% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 79% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 18% | 18% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FK Radnički 1923
WinDrawDrawWinWin
- Sep 19 · at OFK Beograd (A)5-3
- Sep 12 · v FK Mladost Lučani (H)5-0
- Sep 5 · at FK Mačva Šabac (A)0-0
- Aug 29 · at FK Radnički Niš (A)1-1
- Aug 22 · v FK IMT Beograd (H)2-1
FK Crvena zvezda
WinDrawWinWinWin
- Sep 20 · v FK Radnički Niš (H)3-0
- Sep 17 · at FK Železničar Pančevo (A)2-1
- Sep 13 · at FK IMT Beograd (A)1-0
- Sep 10 · at FK Radnik Surdulica (A)0-0
- Sep 6 · v FK Partizan (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | FK Radnički 1923 | FK Crvena zvezda |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 7-1-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 4-1-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.