Superliga (Serbia) · Fri, Oct 23 · 16:00 · FK Radnički 1923 vs FK Radnik Surdulica
Likeliest: FK Radnički 1923 win · 56%
Likely score: 2–1
We make it 60% for both teams to score. The market says 50%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FK Radnički 192356%49%+7
OursMarket
Draw23%27%−4
OursMarket
FK Radnik Surdulica22%25%−3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 49% | +8 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 50% | +10 |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 75% | +3 |
| Double chance X2 | 45% | 51% | −7 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 73% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 72% | 67% | +5 |
| Expected goals | 2.0 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FK Radnički 1923
DrawWinWinLossLoss
- Oct 17 · at FK Vojvodina (A)0-2
- Oct 10 · v FK Crvena zvezda (H)0-3
- Sep 19 · at OFK Beograd (A)5-3
- Sep 12 · v FK Mladost Lučani (H)5-0
- Sep 5 · at FK Mačva Šabac (A)0-0
FK Radnik Surdulica
DrawDrawDrawLossWin
- Oct 16 · v FK Radnički Niš (H)3-0
- Oct 10 · at FK IMT Beograd (A)0-1
- Sep 19 · v FK Partizan (H)4-4
- Sep 14 · at FK Zemun (A)1-1
- Sep 10 · v FK Crvena zvezda (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | FK Radnički 1923 | FK Radnik Surdulica |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-1-1 | 0-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.