Superliga (Serbia) · Fri, Oct 23 · 16:00 · FK Radnički Niš vs FK Novi Pazar
Likeliest: FK Radnički Niš win · 35%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 35% for the home win. The market says 40%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FK Radnički Niš35%40%−4
OursMarket
Draw29%28%+2
OursMarket
FK Novi Pazar35%33%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 49% | +4 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 54% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 67% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 65% | 60% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 50% | 55% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FK Radnički Niš
LossWinLossLossLoss
- Oct 16 · at FK Radnik Surdulica (A)0-3
- Oct 11 · v FK Vojvodina (H)1-4
- Sep 20 · at FK Crvena zvezda (A)0-3
- Sep 13 · v OFK Beograd (H)3-1
- Sep 5 · at FK Mladost Lučani (A)0-1
FK Novi Pazar
WinDrawDrawLossLoss
- Oct 18 · v FK IMT Beograd (H)1-2
- Oct 11 · at FK Partizan (A)0-1
- Sep 19 · v FK Zemun (H)2-2
- Sep 12 · at FK Čukarički (A)1-1
- Sep 4 · v FK Železničar Pančevo (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | FK Radnički Niš | FK Novi Pazar |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-1-2 | 0-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.