Superliga (Serbia) · Fri, Oct 16 · 15:00 · FK Radnik Surdulica vs FK Radnički Niš
Likeliest: FK Radnik Surdulica win · 40%
Likely score: 2–1
We make it 59% for both teams to score. The market says 50%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FK Radnik Surdulica40%42%−2
OursMarket
Draw29%28%+2
OursMarket
FK Radnički Niš31%31%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 47% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 50% | +9 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 69% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 58% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 57% | 58% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FK Radnik Surdulica
WinDrawDrawDrawLoss
- Oct 10 · at FK IMT Beograd (A)0-1
- Sep 19 · v FK Partizan (H)4-4
- Sep 14 · at FK Zemun (A)1-1
- Sep 10 · v FK Crvena zvezda (H)0-0
- Sep 5 · v FK Čukarički (H)3-1
FK Radnički Niš
DrawLossWinLossLoss
- Oct 11 · v FK Vojvodina (H)1-4
- Sep 20 · at FK Crvena zvezda (A)0-3
- Sep 13 · v OFK Beograd (H)3-1
- Sep 5 · at FK Mladost Lučani (A)0-1
- Aug 29 · v FK Radnički 1923 (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | FK Radnik Surdulica | FK Radnički Niš |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-0 | 1-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.