First League (Bulgaria) · Sat, Sep 19 · 13:30 · FK Septemvri Sofia vs Botev Plovdiv
Likeliest: Botev Plovdiv win · 55%
A tight one: we make it 55% for the away win. The market says 53%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FK Septemvri Sofia17%21%−4
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+2
OursMarket
Botev Plovdiv55%53%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 49% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 53% | 50% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 45% | 47% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 83% | 79% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 24% | 28% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.0 | 1.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FK Septemvri Sofia
WinWinDrawLossLoss
- Sep 14 · at Ludogorets (A)1-2
- Sep 4 · v Botev Vratsa (H)2-3
- Aug 28 · at Slavia Sofia (A)1-1
- Aug 23 · v FC CSKA 1948 Sofia (H)1-0
- Aug 17 · at FK Spartak Varna (A)1-0
Botev Plovdiv
LossLossDrawWinWin
- Sep 13 · v Lokomotiv Plovdiv (H)2-0
- Sep 4 · at Arda Kardzhali (A)3-2
- Aug 29 · v Levski Sofia (H)0-0
- Aug 24 · at Botev Vratsa (A)0-1
- Aug 15 · at Ludogorets (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | FK Septemvri Sofia | Botev Plovdiv |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.