First League (Bulgaria) · Sun, Oct 11 · 12:00 · FK Septemvri Sofia vs FK Dunav Ruse
Likeliest: FK Septemvri Sofia win · 40%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 40% for the home win. The market says 42%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FK Septemvri Sofia40%42%−2
OursMarket
Draw32%29%+2
OursMarket
FK Dunav Ruse29%29%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39% | 41% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 52% | 50% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 71% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 58% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 68% | 71% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 58% | 59% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FK Septemvri Sofia
WinDrawLossLossLoss
- Sep 19 · v Botev Plovdiv (H)0-3
- Sep 14 · at Ludogorets (A)1-2
- Sep 4 · v Botev Vratsa (H)2-3
- Aug 28 · at Slavia Sofia (A)1-1
- Aug 23 · v FC CSKA 1948 Sofia (H)1-0
FK Dunav Ruse
LossDrawLossLossDraw
- Sep 19 · v Botev Vratsa (H)2-2
- Sep 12 · at FC CSKA 1948 Sofia (A)1-2
- Sep 7 · v Slavia Sofia (H)0-1
- Aug 31 · v Lokomotiv Sofia (H)2-2
- Aug 21 · at Cherno More Varna (A)1-3
| Last 10 games | FK Septemvri Sofia | FK Dunav Ruse |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 1-2-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 1-0-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.