First League (Bulgaria) · Sat, Sep 5 · 16:00 · FK Spartak Varna vs CSKA Sofia
Likeliest: FK Spartak Varna win · 44%
We make it 56% for both teams to score. The market says 49%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FK Spartak Varna44%16%+28
OursMarket
Draw25%24%+1
OursMarket
CSKA Sofia31%60%−29
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 52% | +1 |
| Both teams score | 56% | 49% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 40% | +29 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 84% | −28 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | 22% | +38 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FK Spartak Varna
WinLossLossLossDraw
- Aug 30 · v Ludogorets (H)1-1
- Aug 22 · at Levski Sofia (A)0-6
- Aug 17 · v FK Septemvri Sofia (H)0-1
- Aug 10 · at Botev Plovdiv (A)2-3
- Aug 3 · v Lokomotiv Plovdiv (H)1-0
CSKA Sofia
LossWinLossLossWin
- Aug 30 · v Cherno More Varna (H)3-1
- Aug 27 · v OFI Crete (H)0-2
- Aug 20 · at OFI Crete (A)0-3
- Aug 16 · v Botev Vratsa (H)5-0
- Aug 13 · v Maccabi Tel Aviv (H)1-3
| Last 10 games | FK Spartak Varna | CSKA Sofia |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.