First League (Bulgaria) · Sun, Sep 20 · 12:15 · FK Spartak Varna vs Lokomotiv Sofia
Likeliest: Lokomotiv Sofia win · 38%
A tight one: we make it 38% for the away win. The market says 37%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FK Spartak Varna32%35%−2
OursMarket
Draw30%28%+2
OursMarket
Lokomotiv Sofia38%37%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 51% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 56% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 62% | 63% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 68% | 65% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 46% | 48% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FK Spartak Varna
LossLossDrawDrawDraw
- Sep 13 · at Slavia Sofia (A)0-0
- Sep 5 · v CSKA Sofia (H)1-1
- Aug 30 · v Ludogorets (H)1-1
- Aug 22 · at Levski Sofia (A)0-6
- Aug 17 · v FK Septemvri Sofia (H)0-1
Lokomotiv Sofia
LossDrawLossDrawLoss
- Sep 16 · v CSKA Sofia (H)0-2
- Sep 11 · at Cherno More Varna (A)2-2
- Sep 6 · v Ludogorets (H)1-2
- Aug 31 · at FK Dunav Ruse (A)2-2
- Aug 17 · at Arda Kardzhali (A)1-3
| Last 10 games | FK Spartak Varna | Lokomotiv Sofia |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 0-4-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 2.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | 1-5-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.