First League (Bulgaria) · Sun, Aug 30 · 16:00 · FK Spartak Varna vs Ludogorets
Likeliest: FK Spartak Varna win · 42%
We make it 64% for both teams to score. The market says 51%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FK Spartak Varna42%17%+24
OursMarket
Draw24%23%+1
OursMarket
Ludogorets34%60%−26
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 54% | −10 |
| Both teams score | 64% | 51% | +13 |
| Double chance 1X | 66% | 40% | +26 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 83% | −25 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 77% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 55% | 22% | +33 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FK Spartak Varna
WinWinLossLossLoss
- Aug 22 · at Levski Sofia (A)0-6
- Aug 17 · v FK Septemvri Sofia (H)0-1
- Aug 10 · at Botev Plovdiv (A)2-3
- Aug 3 · v Lokomotiv Plovdiv (H)1-0
- Jul 26 · at Cherno More Varna (A)3-0
Ludogorets
DrawWinWinWinDraw
- Aug 22 · v Slavia Sofia (H)1-1
- Aug 15 · v Botev Plovdiv (H)2-0
- Aug 9 · at Cherno More Varna (A)3-2
- Aug 2 · v Botev Vratsa (H)2-1
- Jul 30 · v Hapoel Tel Aviv (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | FK Spartak Varna | Ludogorets |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 6-3-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 5-0-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.