FNL (Czech Republic) · Sat, Oct 10 · 16:00 · FK Třinec vs SK Kladno
Likeliest: FK Třinec win · 45%
We make it 55% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 44%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FK Třinec45%40%+5
OursMarket
Draw28%26%+2
OursMarket
SK Kladno27%34%−7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 56% | −10 |
| Both teams score | 49% | 58% | −8 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 66% | +7 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 60% | −5 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 74% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 62% | 54% | +8 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FK Třinec
Loss
- Sep 15 · v Mladá Boleslav (H)0-3
SK Kladno
Draw
- Sep 23 · v Baník Ostrava (H)1-1