3rd Division, Group 1 (Norway) · Sat, Oct 17 · 14:00 · FK Union Carl Berner vs Vålerenga IF II
Likeliest: FK Union Carl Berner win · 37%
We make it 42% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 25%.
17 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FK Union Carl Berner37%42%−5
OursMarket
Draw27%22%+5
OursMarket
Vålerenga IF II36%36%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 75% | −17 |
| Both teams score | 59% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | 64% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 63% | 58% | +5 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 78% | −5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 50% | 54% | −3 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FK Union Carl Berner
WinWinDrawWinLoss
- Oct 10 · at Ready (A)0-4
- Oct 3 · v Lokomotiv Oslo (H)4-1
- Sep 29 · v KFUM Oslo II (H)1-1
- Sep 26 · v Frigg (H)6-2
- Sep 19 · at Bærum SK (A)2-1
Vålerenga IF II
WinLossWinWinWin
- Oct 10 · v Frigg (H)4-1
- Oct 3 · at Nordstrand (A)3-0
- Sep 26 · v Bærum SK (H)2-0
- Sep 19 · at Ullern (A)1-2
- Sep 12 · v Gamle Oslo FK (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | FK Union Carl Berner | Vålerenga IF II |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 7-0-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 2.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-2-2 | 1-0-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.