Niké Liga (Slovakia) · Sun, Oct 11 · 16:00 · FK Železiarne Podbrezová vs FC Spartak Trnava
Likeliest: FC Spartak Trnava win · 37%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 37% for the away win. The market says 36%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FK Železiarne Podbrezová36%38%−2
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
FC Spartak Trnava37%36%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 60% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 63% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 63% | 64% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | 62% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 50% | 51% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FK Železiarne Podbrezová
DrawLossDrawWinWin
- Sep 29 · at Inter Bratislava (A)2-0
- Sep 20 · at MFK Skalica (A)1-0
- Sep 13 · v KFC Komárno (H)1-1
- Sep 5 · at MŠK Žilina (A)1-3
- Aug 29 · v FC Košice (H)2-2
FC Spartak Trnava
WinLossDrawWinDraw
- Sep 20 · at DAC 1904 (A)2-2
- Sep 12 · v FC Košice (H)5-2
- Sep 6 · at MFK Ružomberok (A)1-1
- Aug 30 · v MŠK Žilina (H)1-3
- Aug 23 · at AS Trenčín (A)4-0
| Last 10 games | FK Železiarne Podbrezová | FC Spartak Trnava |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 5-4-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 2-3-0 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.