Superliga (Serbia) · Thu, Sep 17 · 18:00 · FK Železničar Pančevo vs FK Crvena zvezda
Likeliest: FK Crvena zvezda win · 55%
A 22% home win. The market says 16%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FK Železničar Pančevo22%16%+7
OursMarket
Draw23%21%+2
OursMarket
FK Crvena zvezda55%64%−9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 58% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 56% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 45% | 36% | +9 |
| Double chance X2 | 78% | 84% | −7 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 79% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 29% | 20% | +9 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FK Železničar Pančevo
DrawLossWinLossWin
- Sep 11 · v FK Mačva Šabac (H)2-0
- Sep 4 · at FK Novi Pazar (A)0-2
- Aug 29 · v FK Radnik Surdulica (H)5-1
- Aug 23 · at FK Vojvodina (A)0-1
- Aug 9 · at OFK Beograd (A)2-2
FK Crvena zvezda
LossWinWinDrawWin
- Sep 13 · at FK IMT Beograd (A)1-0
- Sep 10 · at FK Radnik Surdulica (A)0-0
- Sep 6 · v FK Partizan (H)2-1
- Aug 30 · at FK Zemun (A)2-0
- Aug 27 · at Viktoria Plzeň (A)1-4
| Last 10 games | FK Železničar Pančevo | FK Crvena zvezda |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-4 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 22% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-1-1 | 3-1-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.