Superliga (Serbia) · Sun, Sep 20 · 18:00 · FK Železničar Pančevo vs FK Čukarički
Likeliest: FK Železničar Pančevo win · 55%
A tight one: we make it 55% for the home win. The market says 54%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FK Železničar Pančevo55%54%+1
OursMarket
Draw24%24%0
OursMarket
FK Čukarički21%21%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 52% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 53% | 53% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 79% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 45% | 46% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 72% | 72% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 2.1 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FK Železničar Pančevo
LossWinLossWinLoss
- Sep 17 · v FK Crvena zvezda (H)1-2
- Sep 11 · v FK Mačva Šabac (H)2-0
- Sep 4 · at FK Novi Pazar (A)0-2
- Aug 29 · v FK Radnik Surdulica (H)5-1
- Aug 23 · at FK Vojvodina (A)0-1
FK Čukarički
WinLossLossLossDraw
- Sep 12 · v FK Novi Pazar (H)1-1
- Sep 5 · at FK Radnik Surdulica (A)1-3
- Aug 29 · v FK Vojvodina (H)0-5
- Aug 23 · at FK Crvena zvezda (A)0-4
- Aug 15 · v OFK Beograd (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | FK Železničar Pančevo | FK Čukarički |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 3-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 56% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 33% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-1-2 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.