Superliga (Serbia) · Sun, Oct 18 · 16:30 · FK Železničar Pančevo vs FK Partizan
Likeliest: FK Partizan win · 40%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 40% for the away win. The market says 39%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FK Železničar Pančevo33%36%−2
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
FK Partizan40%39%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 58% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 59% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 60% | 61% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 67% | 64% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 45% | 48% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FK Železničar Pančevo
LossWinLossWinWin
- Oct 11 · at FK Zemun (A)3-0
- Sep 20 · v FK Čukarički (H)2-1
- Sep 17 · v FK Crvena zvezda (H)1-2
- Sep 11 · v FK Mačva Šabac (H)2-0
- Sep 4 · at FK Novi Pazar (A)0-2
FK Partizan
WinLossLossDrawWin
- Oct 11 · v FK Novi Pazar (H)1-0
- Sep 19 · at FK Radnik Surdulica (A)4-4
- Sep 13 · v FK Vojvodina (H)2-3
- Sep 6 · at FK Crvena zvezda (A)1-2
- Aug 31 · v OFK Beograd (H)3-1
| Last 10 games | FK Železničar Pančevo | FK Partizan |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-2 | 3-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.