Superliga (Serbia) · Fri, Oct 23 · 16:00 · FK Zemun vs FK Mačva Šabac
Likeliest: FK Mačva Šabac win · 42%
Likely score: 1–2
We make it 55% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 46%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FK Zemun30%36%−6
OursMarket
Draw28%28%0
OursMarket
FK Mačva Šabac42%36%+6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 46% | +9 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 50% | +9 |
| Double chance 1X | 58% | 64% | −6 |
| Double chance X2 | 70% | 64% | +6 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 72% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 42% | 50% | −8 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FK Zemun
LossDrawDrawLossLoss
- Oct 17 · at FK Čukarički (A)0-3
- Oct 11 · v FK Železničar Pančevo (H)0-3
- Sep 19 · at FK Novi Pazar (A)2-2
- Sep 14 · v FK Radnik Surdulica (H)1-1
- Sep 6 · at FK Vojvodina (A)1-2
FK Mačva Šabac
DrawLossLossDrawDraw
- Oct 17 · v OFK Beograd (H)1-1
- Oct 10 · at FK Čukarički (A)2-2
- Sep 20 · v FK Mladost Lučani (H)1-2
- Sep 11 · at FK Železničar Pančevo (A)0-2
- Sep 5 · v FK Radnički 1923 (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | FK Zemun | FK Mačva Šabac |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 0-2-8 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 0-2-4 | 0-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.