Superliga (Serbia) · Sun, Oct 11 · 17:00 · FK Zemun vs FK Železničar Pančevo
Likeliest: FK Železničar Pančevo win · 55%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 55% for the away win. The market says 56%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FK Zemun18%19%−2
OursMarket
Draw27%24%+3
OursMarket
FK Železničar Pančevo55%56%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 53% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 48% | 50% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 45% | 44% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 82% | 81% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 76% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 24% | 26% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FK Zemun
LossLossLossDrawDraw
- Sep 19 · at FK Novi Pazar (A)2-2
- Sep 14 · v FK Radnik Surdulica (H)1-1
- Sep 6 · at FK Vojvodina (A)1-2
- Aug 30 · v FK Crvena zvezda (H)0-2
- Aug 22 · at OFK Beograd (A)0-1
FK Železničar Pančevo
WinLossWinLossWin
- Sep 20 · v FK Čukarički (H)2-1
- Sep 17 · v FK Crvena zvezda (H)1-2
- Sep 11 · v FK Mačva Šabac (H)2-0
- Sep 4 · at FK Novi Pazar (A)0-2
- Aug 29 · v FK Radnik Surdulica (H)5-1
| Last 10 games | FK Zemun | FK Železničar Pančevo |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 0-3-7 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 0-2-3 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.