Copa Libertadores (South America) · Thu, Aug 20 · 00:30 · Flamengo vs Cruzeiro
Likeliest: Flamengo win · 63%
We make it 66% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 52%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Flamengo63%57%+6
OursMarket
Draw22%26%−4
OursMarket
Cruzeiro15%17%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 34% | 48% | −14 |
| Both teams score | 45% | 48% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 85% | 83% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 37% | 43% | −6 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 74% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 81% | 77% | +4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Flamengo
DrawDrawWinDrawWin
- Aug 16 · at Mirassol (A)5-1
- Aug 13 · at Cruzeiro (A)0-0
- Aug 9 · v Vitória (H)2-0
- Jul 29 · at Internacional (A)1-1
- Jul 26 · v São Paulo (H)1-1
Cruzeiro
DrawWinWinDrawWin
- Aug 16 · at Corinthians (A)2-1
- Aug 13 · v Flamengo (H)0-0
- Aug 9 · v Mirassol (H)3-1
- Aug 5 · v Chapecoense (H)2-0
- Aug 2 · at Chapecoense (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Flamengo | Cruzeiro |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-3-1 | 6-3-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-2-1 | 5-5-0 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.