Copa Libertadores (South America) · Fri, Oct 23 · 00:30 · Flamengo vs Estudiantes de La Plata
Likeliest: Flamengo win · 70%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 70% for the home win. The market says 67%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Flamengo70%67%+2
OursMarket
Draw20%21%−1
OursMarket
Estudiantes de La Plata10%12%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 69% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 45% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 40% | 38% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 90% | 88% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 30% | 33% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 79% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 88% | 85% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 0.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Flamengo
WinDrawWinDrawWin
- Oct 18 · at Bahia (A)3-0
- Oct 16 · at Estudiantes de La Plata (A)0-0
- Oct 11 · v Fluminense (H)1-0
- Oct 8 · at Santos (A)2-2
- Sep 20 · v Red Bull Bragantino (H)2-1
Estudiantes de La Plata
LossWinDrawDrawLoss
- Oct 18 · v San Lorenzo (H)1-2
- Oct 16 · v Flamengo (H)0-0
- Oct 10 · at Central Córdoba (A)2-2
- Oct 5 · v Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza (H)3-0
- Oct 2 · at Platense (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Flamengo | Estudiantes de La Plata |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-3-0 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.5 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-2-0 | 2-1-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.