Serie A (Brazil) · Sun, Oct 11 · 20:30 · Flamengo vs Fluminense
Likeliest: Flamengo win · 72%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 72% for the home win. The market says 70%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Flamengo72%70%+2
OursMarket
Draw19%19%−1
OursMarket
Fluminense9%11%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 55% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 49% | 47% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 91% | 89% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 28% | 30% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 81% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 88% | 86% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Flamengo
WinWinDrawWinDraw
- Oct 8 · at Santos (A)2-2
- Sep 20 · v Red Bull Bragantino (H)2-1
- Sep 18 · v Independiente del Valle (H)1-1
- Sep 13 · v Corinthians (H)2-1
- Sep 11 · at Independiente del Valle (A)2-0
Fluminense
WinLossLossWinWin
- Oct 9 · v Coritiba (H)4-0
- Sep 20 · at Corinthians (A)3-1
- Sep 15 · at Platense (A)1-2
- Sep 12 · at Atlético Mineiro (A)1-3
- Sep 8 · v Platense (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Flamengo | Fluminense |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-2-1 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-2-0 | 1-6-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.