Football League Trophy (England) · Tue, Oct 6 · 18:00 · Fleetwood Town vs Barnsley
Likeliest: Barnsley win · 48%
Likely score: 1–2
We make it 73% for both teams to score. The market says 61%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Fleetwood Town27%29%−2
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
Barnsley48%46%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 90% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 51% | −5 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 54% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 73% | 61% | +12 |
| Double chance 1X | 52% | 54% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 73% | 71% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 36% | 39% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 2.2 | 1.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Fleetwood Town
WinLossLossLossLoss
- Oct 3 · at Salford City (A)0-1
- Sep 26 · v Rochdale (H)1-2
- Sep 22 · at Oldham Athletic (A)0-1
- Sep 19 · at Barnet (A)1-3
- Sep 16 · v Sheffield United (H)1-0
Barnsley
LossLossDrawDrawLoss
- Sep 22 · v Leeds United U21 (H)3-4
- Sep 19 · v Leicester City (H)1-1
- Sep 15 · at Peterborough United (A)3-3
- Sep 12 · at Plymouth Argyle (A)0-3
- Sep 5 · v Stevenage (H)1-5
| Last 10 games | Fleetwood Town | Barnsley |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 2.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.