EFL Cup (England) · Wed, Sep 16 · 18:45 · Fleetwood Town vs Sheffield United
Likeliest: Sheffield United win · 61%
A tight one: we make it 61% for the away win. The market says 59%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Fleetwood Town15%18%−3
OursMarket
Draw24%23%+1
OursMarket
Sheffield United61%59%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 56% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 55% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 39% | 41% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 85% | 82% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 77% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 20% | 24% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Fleetwood Town
WinDrawDrawWinDraw
- Sep 12 · at Newport County (A)1-1
- Sep 5 · v Shrewsbury Town (H)2-0
- Sep 1 · v Oldham Athletic (H)1-1
- Aug 29 · at Grimsby Town (A)2-2
- Aug 25 · v Shrewsbury Town (H)4-0
Sheffield United
DrawWinLossWinLoss
- Sep 13 · v Wolverhampton (H)0-1
- Sep 8 · at Blackburn Rovers (A)2-1
- Sep 5 · v Norwich City (H)1-3
- Sep 1 · v Bolton Wanderers (H)3-2
- Aug 29 · at Cardiff City (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | Fleetwood Town | Sheffield United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-6-0 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-5-1 | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.