League Two (England) · Sat, Oct 10 · 14:00 · Fleetwood Town vs Walsall
Likeliest: Fleetwood Town win · 42%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 42% for the home win. The market says 43%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Fleetwood Town42%43%−1
OursMarket
Draw29%27%+2
OursMarket
Walsall30%30%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 52% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 56% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 70% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 57% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 58% | 58% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Fleetwood Town
LossLossLossLossWin
- Oct 6 · v Barnsley (H)4-1
- Oct 3 · at Salford City (A)0-1
- Sep 26 · v Rochdale (H)1-2
- Sep 22 · at Oldham Athletic (A)0-1
- Sep 19 · at Barnet (A)1-3
Walsall
DrawDrawWinLossDraw
- Sep 26 · at Tranmere Rovers (A)1-1
- Sep 22 · v Stevenage (H)1-6
- Sep 19 · v Port Vale (H)2-0
- Sep 12 · v Rochdale (H)0-0
- Sep 5 · at Exeter City (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Fleetwood Town | Walsall |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 3-6-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-4-1 | 4-4-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.