Serie A (Brazil) · Fri, Oct 9 · 00:30 · Fluminense vs Coritiba
Likeliest: Fluminense win · 65%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 65% for the home win. The market says 64%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Fluminense65%64%+1
OursMarket
Draw22%22%0
OursMarket
Coritiba13%14%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 51% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 50% | 47% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 87% | 86% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 35% | 36% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 78% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 84% | 82% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Fluminense
WinWinLossLossWin
- Sep 20 · at Corinthians (A)3-1
- Sep 15 · at Platense (A)1-2
- Sep 12 · at Atlético Mineiro (A)1-3
- Sep 8 · v Platense (H)2-0
- Sep 6 · v Vasco da Gama (H)1-0
Coritiba
WinWinLossDrawLoss
- Sep 19 · at Vasco da Gama (A)0-5
- Sep 12 · v Athletico (H)3-3
- Sep 6 · v Mirassol (H)1-2
- Aug 31 · at Remo (A)3-2
- Aug 23 · v Corinthians (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Fluminense | Coritiba |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.