Copa Libertadores (South America) · Tue, Aug 11 · 22:00 · Fluminense vs Independiente Rivadavia
Likeliest: Independiente Rivadavia win · 40%
We make it 56% for both teams to score. The market says 44%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Fluminense33%58%−25
OursMarket
Draw28%24%+4
OursMarket
Independiente Rivadavia40%18%+21
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 45% | +6 |
| Both teams score | 56% | 44% | +12 |
| Double chance 1X | 60% | 82% | −21 |
| Double chance X2 | 67% | 42% | +25 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 76% | −4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 45% | 76% | −31 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Fluminense
DrawDrawDrawLossDraw
- Aug 9 · at Botafogo (A)1-1
- Aug 6 · v Vasco da Gama (H)1-3
- Aug 1 · at Vasco da Gama (A)0-0
- Jul 30 · v Bahia (H)0-0
- Jul 26 · at Grêmio (A)1-1
Independiente Rivadavia
WinDrawWinLossWin
- Aug 8 · v Estudiantes de Río Cuarto (H)2-1
- Aug 3 · at Sarmiento (A)1-2
- Jul 30 · v Huracán (H)2-1
- Jul 26 · at Atlético Tucumán (A)0-0
- Jul 12 · v Tigre (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Fluminense | Independiente Rivadavia |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-6-2 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 6-3-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.