Copa Libertadores (South America) · Thu, Oct 15 · 00:30 · Fluminense vs Palmeiras
Likeliest: draw · 35%
Likely score: 0–0
A tight one: we make it 35% for the draw. The market says 32%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Fluminense30%33%−3
OursMarket
Draw35%32%+3
OursMarket
Palmeiras35%35%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 66% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 34% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 46% | 42% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 65% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 71% | 67% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 65% | 68% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 46% | 48% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.0 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Fluminense
LossLossWinWinLoss
- Oct 11 · at Flamengo (A)0-1
- Oct 9 · v Coritiba (H)4-0
- Sep 20 · at Corinthians (A)3-1
- Sep 15 · at Platense (A)1-2
- Sep 12 · at Atlético Mineiro (A)1-3
Palmeiras
WinLossDrawWinWin
- Oct 11 · v Corinthians (H)4-1
- Oct 9 · v Bahia (H)1-0
- Sep 20 · at Grêmio (A)0-0
- Sep 16 · at LDU (A)2-3
- Sep 12 · v São Paulo (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Fluminense | Palmeiras |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 5-4-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 70% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.