Copa Libertadores (South America) · Tue, Sep 8 · 22:00 · Fluminense vs Platense
Likeliest: Fluminense win · 61%
We make it 48% for both teams to score. The market says 35%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Fluminense61%64%−3
OursMarket
Draw22%24%−3
OursMarket
Platense17%12%+6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 39% | +11 |
| Both teams score | 48% | 35% | +12 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 88% | −6 |
| Double chance X2 | 39% | 36% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 76% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 78% | 85% | −7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Fluminense
WinDrawWinDrawWin
- Sep 6 · v Vasco da Gama (H)1-0
- Aug 30 · at Athletico (A)3-3
- Aug 22 · v Remo (H)2-1
- Aug 18 · at Independiente Rivadavia (A)1-1
- Aug 15 · v Palmeiras (H)3-2
Platense
DrawWinDrawLossDraw
- Sep 4 · v Deportivo Riestra (H)1-1
- Aug 31 · at Defensa y Justicia (A)0-1
- Aug 28 · v Instituto De Córdoba (H)1-1
- Aug 23 · at Barracas Central (A)2-1
- Aug 19 · at Coquimbo Unido (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Fluminense | Platense |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-6-1 | 2-5-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.