Serie A (Brazil) · Sun, Oct 18 · 19:00 · Fluminense vs Santos
Likeliest: Fluminense win · 46%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 46% for the home win. The market says 47%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Fluminense46%47%−1
OursMarket
Draw28%27%+1
OursMarket
Santos26%26%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 51% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 54% | 52% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 74% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | 53% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 73% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 64% | 64% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Fluminense
LossWinWinLossLoss
- Oct 15 · v Palmeiras (H)1-2
- Oct 11 · at Flamengo (A)0-1
- Oct 9 · v Coritiba (H)4-0
- Sep 20 · at Corinthians (A)3-1
- Sep 15 · at Platense (A)1-2
Santos
LossWinWinDrawLoss
- Oct 11 · at Atlético Mineiro (A)1-2
- Oct 8 · v Flamengo (H)2-2
- Oct 2 · at São Paulo (A)2-1
- Sep 19 · at Remo (A)2-1
- Sep 16 · at Atlético Mineiro (A)2-4
| Last 10 games | Fluminense | Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 6-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.