Copa do Brasil (Brazil) · Thu, Aug 6 · 00:30 · Fluminense vs Vasco da Gama
Likeliest: Fluminense win · 59%
A 59% home win. The market says 46%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Fluminense59%46%+13
OursMarket
Draw22%28%−7
OursMarket
Vasco da Gama19%26%−6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 44% | −6 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 48% | +9 |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 74% | +6 |
| Double chance X2 | 41% | 54% | −13 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 72% | +7 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 76% | 64% | +11 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Fluminense
DrawDrawDrawDrawDraw
- Aug 1 · at Vasco da Gama (A)0-0
- Jul 30 · v Bahia (H)0-0
- Jul 26 · at Grêmio (A)1-1
- Jul 17 · v Red Bull Bragantino (H)1-1
- May 31 · at Cruzeiro (A)1-1
Vasco da Gama
LossDrawDrawWinDraw
- Aug 1 · v Fluminense (H)0-0
- Jul 29 · v Independiente Medellín (H)1-0
- Jul 25 · v Mirassol (H)1-1
- Jul 22 · at Independiente Medellín (A)2-2
- Jul 16 · at Vitória (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Fluminense | Vasco da Gama |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-5-1 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.