3rd Division, Group 5 (Norway) · Sun, Oct 18 · 13:00 · Fløya vs Tromsø IL II
Likeliest: Fløya win · 54%
A 25% draw. The market says 16%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Fløya54%70%−17
OursMarket
Draw25%16%+9
OursMarket
Tromsø IL II22%14%+8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 86% | −8 |
| Double chance X2 | 46% | 30% | +17 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 84% | −9 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 71% | 83% | −12 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Fløya
LossWinWinWinWin
- Oct 10 · at Skedsmo (A)3-1
- Oct 3 · v Bossekop (H)5-1
- Sep 27 · at Strømsgodset II (A)4-2
- Sep 20 · v Finnsnes IL (H)3-1
- Sep 16 · v Rosenborg BK (H)1-4
Tromsø IL II
LossWinWinDrawWin
- Oct 11 · v Lillestrøm SK 2 (H)2-0
- Oct 3 · v Finnsnes IL (H)1-1
- Sep 27 · at FK Fauske/Sprint (A)3-0
- Sep 21 · v Kongsvinger 2 (H)6-0
- Sep 14 · at Skjetten (A)2-3
| Last 10 games | Fløya | Tromsø IL II |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-1-2 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 3.5 | 2.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-1 | 2-1-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.