NM Cup (Norway) · Wed, Sep 30 · 14:00 · Follo vs Sarpsborg 08
Likeliest: Sarpsborg 08 win · 81%
We make it 45% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 28%.
17 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Follo6%6%0
OursMarket
Draw13%10%+4
OursMarket
Sarpsborg 0881%85%−4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 72% | −17 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 40% | +17 |
| Double chance 1X | 19% | 15% | +4 |
| Double chance X2 | 94% | 94% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 87% | 90% | −4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 7% | 6% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 0.6 | 2.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Follo
No recent results tracked.
Sarpsborg 08
LossDrawDrawDrawLoss
- Sep 18 · v KFUM Oslo (H)1-3
- Sep 13 · at Fredrikstad FK (A)1-1
- Sep 6 · v Vålerenga IF (H)2-2
- Aug 30 · at Tromsø IL (A)0-0
- Aug 16 · v Sandefjord Fotball (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Follo | Sarpsborg 08 |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | — | 2-5-3 |
| Goals scored a game | — | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | — | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | — | 50% |
| Both teams scored | — | 60% |
| Clean sheets | — | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 2-5-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.