National League (England) · Sat, Oct 10 · 16:30 · Forest Green Rovers vs Hartlepool United
Likeliest: Forest Green Rovers win · 59%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 59% for the home win. The market says 58%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Forest Green Rovers59%58%+1
OursMarket
Draw23%23%0
OursMarket
Hartlepool United18%20%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 59% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 58% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 82% | 80% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 41% | 42% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 76% | 75% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Forest Green Rovers
WinDrawLossDrawDraw
- Sep 29 · v Wealdstone (H)1-1
- Sep 26 · at Sutton United (A)3-3
- Sep 19 · v Boston United (H)1-3
- Sep 15 · at Carlisle United (A)1-1
- Sep 12 · v Gateshead (H)4-0
Hartlepool United
LossLossLossLossLoss
- Oct 3 · v Tamworth (H)0-1
- Sep 29 · v Harrogate Town (H)0-1
- Sep 26 · at Scunthorpe United (A)1-4
- Sep 19 · v Worthing FC (H)1-3
- Sep 16 · at Altrincham (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Forest Green Rovers | Hartlepool United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 1-0-9 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 1-1-8 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.