Canadian Premier League (Canada) · Sat, Oct 3 · 20:00 · Forge FC vs HFX Wanderers FC
Likeliest: Forge FC win · 59%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 59% for the home win. The market says 64%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Forge FC59%64%−5
OursMarket
Draw25%21%+4
OursMarket
HFX Wanderers FC17%15%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 58% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 51% | 51% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 85% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 42% | 36% | +5 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 79% | −4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 78% | 81% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 2.0 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Forge FC
LossDrawWinDrawDraw
- Sep 26 · at Vancouver FC (A)1-1
- Sep 19 · at Cavalry FC (A)1-1
- Sep 12 · v Atlético Ottawa (H)3-0
- Sep 5 · v York United FC (H)1-1
- Aug 28 · at FC Supra Du Quebec (A)0-1
HFX Wanderers FC
LossLossWinWinLoss
- Sep 26 · v Atlético Ottawa (H)0-1
- Sep 20 · v York United FC (H)4-1
- Sep 12 · at FC Supra Du Quebec (A)2-0
- Sep 7 · v Cavalry FC (H)1-3
- Aug 30 · at Pacific FC (A)3-4
| Last 10 games | Forge FC | HFX Wanderers FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 3-1-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-1 | 2-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.