Canadian Premier League (Canada) · Wed, Oct 7 · 23:00 · Forge FC vs Pacific FC
Likeliest: Forge FC win · 77%
Likely score: 2–0
A tight one: we make it 77% for the home win. The market says 74%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Forge FC77%74%+3
OursMarket
Draw14%15%−1
OursMarket
Pacific FC9%10%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 68% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 48% | 50% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 91% | 90% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 23% | 26% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 86% | 85% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 90% | 88% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.2 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Forge FC
DrawWinDrawDrawDraw
- Oct 3 · v HFX Wanderers FC (H)3-3
- Sep 26 · at Vancouver FC (A)1-1
- Sep 19 · at Cavalry FC (A)1-1
- Sep 12 · v Atlético Ottawa (H)3-0
- Sep 5 · v York United FC (H)1-1
Pacific FC
DrawLossDrawWinLoss
- Oct 4 · at FC Supra Du Quebec (A)0-5
- Sep 27 · at York United FC (A)4-3
- Sep 20 · v Vancouver FC (H)1-1
- Sep 13 · v Cavalry FC (H)0-1
- Sep 9 · at York United FC (A)3-3
| Last 10 games | Forge FC | Pacific FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 2-5-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-1 | 1-4-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.