Canadian Premier League (Canada) · Mon, Oct 12 · 17:00 · Forge FC vs York United FC
Likeliest: Forge FC win · 75%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 75% for the home win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
Forge FC75%——
OursMarket
Draw15%——
OursMarket
York United FC11%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 87% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 46% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 66% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 90% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 25% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 85% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 88% | — | — |
| Expected goals | 2.9 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Forge FC
WinDrawDrawDrawWin
- Oct 7 · v Pacific FC (H)3-0
- Oct 3 · v HFX Wanderers FC (H)3-3
- Sep 26 · at Vancouver FC (A)1-1
- Sep 19 · at Cavalry FC (A)1-1
- Sep 12 · v Atlético Ottawa (H)3-0
York United FC
LossDrawLossWinLoss
- Oct 7 · v FC Supra Du Quebec (H)1-2
- Oct 3 · v Cavalry FC (H)3-1
- Sep 27 · v Pacific FC (H)3-4
- Sep 24 · at Vancouver FC (A)3-3
- Sep 20 · at HFX Wanderers FC (A)1-4
| Last 10 games | Forge FC | York United FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 2.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 100% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-2-1 | 0-4-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.