USL League One (USA) · Sat, Oct 3 · 23:30 · Fort Wayne FC vs Forward Madison FC
Likeliest: Fort Wayne FC win · 40%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 40% for the home win. The market says 42%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Fort Wayne FC40%42%−2
OursMarket
Draw28%26%+2
OursMarket
Forward Madison FC33%32%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 56% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 59% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 68% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 58% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 74% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 55% | 56% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Fort Wayne FC
LossWinLossDrawDraw
- Sep 26 · at Charlotte Independence (A)0-0
- Sep 19 · v FC Naples (H)2-2
- Sep 16 · v One Knoxville SC (H)2-3
- Sep 12 · at Greenville Triumph SC (A)3-1
- Sep 5 · v New York Cosmos (H)2-4
Forward Madison FC
WinDrawLossWinLoss
- Sep 26 · v Spokane Velocity FC (H)0-1
- Sep 19 · v AV Alta FC (H)3-0
- Sep 16 · at Chattanooga Red Wolves SC (A)0-1
- Sep 12 · v Sarasota Paradise (H)1-1
- Sep 6 · at Corpus Christi FC (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | Fort Wayne FC | Forward Madison FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-4 | 4-0-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.