USL League One (USA) · Sat, Oct 17 · 23:30 · Fort Wayne FC vs Sarasota Paradise
Likeliest: Fort Wayne FC win · 48%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 48% for the home win. The market says 48%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Fort Wayne FC48%48%0
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
Sarasota Paradise25%26%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 56% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 58% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 74% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 52% | 52% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | 65% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Fort Wayne FC
DrawDrawDrawWinWin
- Oct 10 · at Union Omaha SC (A)1-0
- Oct 8 · at Corpus Christi FC (A)3-1
- Oct 3 · v Forward Madison FC (H)0-0
- Sep 26 · at Charlotte Independence (A)0-0
- Sep 19 · v FC Naples (H)2-2
Sarasota Paradise
DrawWinWinLossWin
- Oct 10 · v Richmond Kickers (H)3-2
- Oct 3 · v Charlotte Independence (H)2-3
- Sep 26 · at Portland Hearts of Pine (A)4-1
- Sep 19 · v Greenville Triumph SC (H)6-0
- Sep 12 · at Forward Madison FC (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Fort Wayne FC | Sarasota Paradise |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 2.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.