Primera A (Colombia) · Sun, Oct 25 · 19:00 · Fortaleza CEIF vs Deportivo Cali
Likeliest: Deportivo Cali win · 44%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 44% for the away win. The market says 42%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Fortaleza CEIF24%28%−4
OursMarket
Draw32%29%+3
OursMarket
Deportivo Cali44%42%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 67% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 43% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 53% | 49% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 56% | 58% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 76% | 72% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 68% | 71% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 36% | 40% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 0.8 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Fortaleza CEIF
DrawLossDrawDrawDraw
- Oct 9 · v Millonarios (H)1-1
- Oct 4 · at Deportivo Pasto (A)0-0
- Sep 27 · v Deportes Tolima (H)2-2
- Sep 20 · v Junior Barranquilla (H)1-4
- Sep 11 · at Jaguares de Córdoba (A)2-2
Deportivo Cali
WinWinWinDrawDraw
- Oct 19 · v Junior Barranquilla (H)0-0
- Oct 10 · at Deportivo Pereira (A)0-0
- Oct 3 · v Alianza Valledupar FC (H)3-1
- Sep 28 · v Rionegro Águilas Doradas (H)2-0
- Sep 23 · at Independiente Santa Fe (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Fortaleza CEIF | Deportivo Cali |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-6-3 | 5-4-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-3-3 | 3-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.